A carregar...
Publicação
On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960–2022)
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.96 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US,
Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4
period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we
find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current
accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in
the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and
robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account
for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political
tensions.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Political relations time-varying causality lag-augmented vector autoregression China
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Afonso, António, Valérie Mignon e Jamel Saadaoui (2023). "On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960–2022)". REM Working paper series, nº 0301/2023
Editora
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics