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Pan‐Arctic assessment of coastal settlements and infrastructure vulnerable to coastal erosion, sea‐level rise, and permafrost thaw
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal
erosion, Sea‐Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat
consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We
provide a new method to automatically derive long‐term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In
addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be
threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic
Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs.
The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000
to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for
2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI‐v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in‐situ
data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low‐lying coast (<10 m a.s.l). The results show that in
2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal
permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8°C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT
will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and
international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current
and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure
sustainability.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Climate change Coastal erosion Infrastructures Permafrost Remote sensing Sea level rise
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Tanguy, R., Bartsch, A., Nitze, I., Irrgang, A., Petzold, P., Widhalm, B., von Baeckmann, C., Boike, J., Martin, J., Efimova, A., Vieira, G., Whalen, D., Heim, B., Wieczorek, M., & Grosse, G. (2024). Pan-Arctic assessment of coastal settlements and infrastructure vulnerable to coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and permafrost thaw. Earth's Future, 12(12), e2024EF005013. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005013
Editora
John Wiley and Sons