Publication
Government scale as a stabilizer: effects on output volatility and losses
| dc.contributor.author | Afonso, António | |
| dc.contributor.author | Alves, José | |
| dc.contributor.author | Leal, Frederico Silva | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-07-29T10:51:42Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-07-29T10:51:42Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-07 | |
| dc.description.abstract | We examine the impact of government size on economic fluctuations and the role of fiscal policy in promoting macroeconomic stability in the period 1980-2024. The results indicate that indirect taxes, capital taxes, and social security contributions (as a percentage of GDP) are associated with lower output volatility, whereas direct taxes tend to amplify it, particularly over longer horizons. On the expenditure side, current spending – especially public wages and interest payments – also exerts a stabilising influence. We further provide new estimates of output losses from the two most severe recent recessions in the EU27 – the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic – and find evidence that the severity of these losses may be linked to the scale of the government, both before and after the crises. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | António Afonso, José Alves e Frederico Silva Leal (2025). "Government scale as a stabilizer: effects on output volatility and losses ". REM Working paper series, nº 0385/2025 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/102504 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.publisher | REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics | pt_PT |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | REM Working paper series;nº 0385/2025 | |
| dc.subject | Government size | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Fiscal policy | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Macroeconomic stability | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Output losses | pt_PT |
| dc.title | Government scale as a stabilizer: effects on output volatility and losses | pt_PT |
| dc.type | working paper | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| rcaap.rights | openAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | workingPaper | pt_PT |