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Publicação
The fiscal forecasting track record of the European Commission and Portugal
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This study aims at explaining the deviation between the budget balance ratio forecasts and the outcomes in the Portuguese official forecasts and in the European Commission (EC) vintage forecasts. Therefore, we used data from the EC for the period 1969-2011 and also the Portuguese official forecasts for 1977-2011. We explain the deviation of the budget balance-to-GDP through econometric estimations and present statistical decomposition about budget
balance, revenue and spending-to-GDP deviations. The statistical significance of real GDP and inflation deviations reveals the effect of automatic stabilizers and the imperfect tax indexation system. The European panel reveals statistical significance (no significance) of investment (unemployment) deviations in the budget-to-GDP ratio. Countries with better fiscal rules seem to present favourable deviations (in the absence of fixed effects). In
Portugal, there is evidence of unfavourable errors about the budget balance in nominal
currency in most years, which has been offset (totally or partially) by a favourable nominal GDP effect deviation.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Macro Forecasts Fiscal Forecasts EU Portugal
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Afonso, António e Jorge Silva. 2012 "The fiscal forecasting track record of the European Commission and Portugal". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 37-2012/DE/UECE
Editora
ISEG - Departamento de Economia