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Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

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dc.contributor.authorVaz, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.contributor.authorPereira, Susana
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sérgio Cruz
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Ricardo A. C.
dc.contributor.authorQuaresma, Ivânia
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-14T14:28:54Z
dc.date.available2018-05-14T14:28:54Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractThis work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationVaz, T., Zêzere, J. L., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S. C., Garcia, R. A. C., & Quaresma, I. (2018). Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18(4), 1037-1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1037-2018pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/nhess-18-1037-2018pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1561-8633
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/33368
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Unionpt_PT
dc.relationDESENCADEAMENTO DE MOVIMENTOS DE VERTENTE EM PORTUGAL CONTINENTAL. ESTUDO DO PAPEL DA PRECIPITAÇÃO E DA ACTIVIDADE SÍSMICA
dc.relationMODELAÇÃO DINÂMICA DA PERIGOSIDADE A MOVIMENTOS DE VERTENTE E DESENVOLVIMENTO DE UM PROTÓTIPO DE SISTEMA DE ALERTA À ESCALA REGIONAL MOVALERT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1037/2018/pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectRegional rainfall thresholdspt_PT
dc.subjectLandslidept_PT
dc.titleRegional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary databasept_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleDESENCADEAMENTO DE MOVIMENTOS DE VERTENTE EM PORTUGAL CONTINENTAL. ESTUDO DO PAPEL DA PRECIPITAÇÃO E DA ACTIVIDADE SÍSMICA
oaire.awardTitleMODELAÇÃO DINÂMICA DA PERIGOSIDADE A MOVIMENTOS DE VERTENTE E DESENVOLVIMENTO DE UM PROTÓTIPO DE SISTEMA DE ALERTA À ESCALA REGIONAL MOVALERT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FATP-GEO%2F1660%2F2014/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBD%2F74716%2F2010/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBPD%2F85827%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FGEO%2F00295%2F2013/PT
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceGöttingenpt_PT
oaire.citation.endPage1054pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue4pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1037pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume18pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream5876
person.familyNameVaz
person.familyNameZêzere
person.familyNameda Silva Pereira
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNameGarcia
person.givenNameTeresa
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.givenNameSusana
person.givenNameSérgio
person.givenNameR.A.C.
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.ciencia-id2616-729A-B185
person.identifier.ciencia-id1B10-8CE2-1F13
person.identifier.ciencia-idBC12-77B6-7801
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7050-6160
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9674-0964
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0883-8564
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1036-6271
person.identifier.ridB-8239-2016
person.identifier.ridM-8412-2016
person.identifier.ridJ-8719-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
person.identifier.scopus-author-id24779631800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55454646500
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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