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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for
31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation
techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our
findings reveal that European nations primarily respond to global uncertainty by
concentrating their exports and imports among top trading partners particularly their top
5 highest trading partners. This result is more pronounced when uncertainty is driven by
low-income countries. Moreover, there is a stronger relationship between imports and
global uncertainty compared to exports. Our study underscores the importance of
European economies strategically adapting their export and import approaches in
response to these challenges.
Description
Keywords
Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Trade Flows International Trade European Economies
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Afonso, António [et al.] (2024). "The role of global uncertainty in shaping trade flow relations : a cross-country analysis for Europe ". REM Working paper series, nº 0346/2024
Publisher
ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)