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Era possível antecipar a intensidade da epidemia de dengue na Madeira para o ano de 2013?
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Resumo: O vírus do dengue tem tido um efeito negativo sobre os habitantes de muitas regiões tropicais, infetando milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo. A epidemia de dengue na Região Autónoma da Madeira, um arquipélago Português, foi oficialmente declarada pelas
autoridades de saúde portuguesas, em 3 de outubro de 2012. Os principais objetivos deste estudo foram: 1) entender melhor a evolução do dengue na Madeira e 2) antecipar possíveis cenários para o ano de 2013. Devido à falta de registos anteriores, uma vez que se trata da primeira epidemia deste tipo na ilha, este estudo tornou-se um desafio. Assim, para traçar o comportamento do próprio vírus do dengue, reuniu-se informação sobre surtos passados dessa epidemia em várias partes do mundo. Foram selecionadas seis regiões do globo, de acordo com critérios pré-definidos, cujas condições ambientais, sociais e económicas fossem semelhantes às da Madeira durante a propagação da epidemia. Concluiu-se que, em 2013, eram previstos entre 2160 e 2470 casos clínicos de dengue a ocorrer no arquipélago. De facto, até o dia 3 de Fevereiro de 2013 foram diagnosticados na Madeira um total de 2164 casos clínicos.
The dengue virus has had a detrimental effect on the inhabitants of many tropical areas, infecting millions of people worldwide. The dengue epidemic in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, a Portuguese archipelago, was officially declared by the Portuguese Health Authorities on the 3rd October, 2012. The main objectives of this study were: 1) to better understand the evolution of the dengue fever in Madeira and 2) to anticipate possible scenarios for the year of 2013. This study was more challenging due to the absence of past evidence because it referes to the first epidemic of this kind on the island. Therefore, past information regarding outbreaks of this epidemic in other parts of the world was gathered to trace the behavior of the virus itself. Then, six regions of the world were selected according to predefined criteria that reflected similar ambient conditions to those of Madeira during the spread of the epidemic. It was concluded that in 2013, between 2160 and 2470 dengue clinical cases were expected to occur in the archipelago. Up until the 3rd of February of 2013, a total of 2164 clinical cases were in Madeira.
The dengue virus has had a detrimental effect on the inhabitants of many tropical areas, infecting millions of people worldwide. The dengue epidemic in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, a Portuguese archipelago, was officially declared by the Portuguese Health Authorities on the 3rd October, 2012. The main objectives of this study were: 1) to better understand the evolution of the dengue fever in Madeira and 2) to anticipate possible scenarios for the year of 2013. This study was more challenging due to the absence of past evidence because it referes to the first epidemic of this kind on the island. Therefore, past information regarding outbreaks of this epidemic in other parts of the world was gathered to trace the behavior of the virus itself. Then, six regions of the world were selected according to predefined criteria that reflected similar ambient conditions to those of Madeira during the spread of the epidemic. It was concluded that in 2013, between 2160 and 2470 dengue clinical cases were expected to occur in the archipelago. Up until the 3rd of February of 2013, a total of 2164 clinical cases were in Madeira.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Dengue epidemic Dengue virus Attack rate Mortality rate Population density Subtropical climate
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Portugal Saúde em Números 2014; 2; 21-29