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Fiscal policy spillovers in the Euro Area : a new assessment
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We compute a GVAR to estimate the fiscal spillóvers on output, consumption,
investment, employment, and income, from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4, with 16 Euro Area
(EA) countries. We found that a budget balance expansionary shock in Germany
wóuld generate positive spillovers on output and employment. Negative cross-country effects on consumption were also found. No significant spillovers on
investment or income were observed following this shock. Greater and more
significant spillovers were found after an EA global shock. There are also positive
effects on private investment. However, a global shock still does not generate
significant effects on income and increases the magnitude of the negative short-run
spillovers on consumptión. Greece is one of the countries more affected by short-run
negative spillovers. Finally, national and global fiscal shocks put upward pressure on
prices and generate negative effects on public debt. From a policy perspective, we
recommend the reinforcement of the fiscal coordination framework.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Euro Area fiscal spillóvers policy coordination GVAR
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Afonso, António e Daniel Loureiro (2024). "Fiscal policy spillovers in the Euro Area : a new assessment". REM Working paper series, nº 0347/2024
Editora
ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)