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Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal

2021Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Ana
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-15T12:49:07Z
dc.date.available2022-11-01T01:30:46Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractRecent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece and Australia. Sociodemographic changes in rural areas and climate change issues create unprecedented and challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment of fire management strategies and planning tools. In this research, we revise the procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal in a structural perspective. Based on a dataset of burned areas covering 44 years and a set of predisposing factors related to topography and landcover, we tested several susceptibility models using the Likelihood Ratio method, to calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed using national detailed sources and considering different timeframes. Hazard levels were obtained by combining the susceptibility model with the best accuracy and the probability to burn estimated from fire history (1975-2018). The resulting hazard values were classified in 5 levels based on the breaks of the success curve, instead of quantiles as in previous maps, to ensure territorial continuity at different spatial scales. The results show where the combination of terrain features is more favorable to fire propagation. The higher favourability scores were found for shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork and holm forests show lower scores. Eucalyptus and maritime pine forests show similar intermediate scores and have increased since 2007. The two highest hazard classes classify correctly 90% of the burned area over 44 years, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. If integrated in spatial planning instruments, in conjunction with municipal plans, the two most hazardous classes may hinder the expansion of built-up areas. About 2% of the municipalities have more than 90% of their territory classified as hazardous, whereas 32% of the municipalities have, instead, less than 10% of hazardous area. These structural maps are a useful baseline for a long-term approach and can be complemented by estimations regarding the behavior and severity of wildfires, which should be further explored.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationOliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., & Zêzere, J. L. (2021). Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal. Science of the Total Environment, 762, 143121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143121pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143121pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/46314
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationPOSEUR-02-1810-FC-00504-ASIRPCpt_PT
dc.relationPeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720366511?via%3Dihubpt_PT
dc.subjectWildfiresSusceptibility modelpt_PT
dc.subjectHazard mappt_PT
dc.subjectStructural approachpt_PT
dc.subjectSpatial planningpt_PT
dc.titleReassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugalpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitlePeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PCIF%2FAGT%2F0136%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.startPage143121pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleScience of The Total Environmentpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume762pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNamedo Nascimento Gonçalves
person.familyNameZêzere
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameAna Cristina
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-id391A-DCE3-00CD
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8857-2120
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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