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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Drawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging
from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical;
but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.
Description
Keywords
Fiscal Policy Real-Time Data Revenue Expenditure Cyclicality Elections
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Pina, Álvaro M. (2009). "Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes". Banco de Portugal. Estudos e Documentos de Trabalho. Working Papers nº 6 | 2006