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A tree‑ and climate‑dependent growth model to predict mature annual cork thickness under different climate change scenarios

2023-09Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorPaulo, Joana Amaral
dc.contributor.authorFirmino, Paulo N.
dc.contributor.authorTomé, Margarida
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-09T15:01:18Z
dc.date.available2024-07-09T15:01:18Z
dc.date.issued2023-09
dc.description.abstractClimatic factors drive the annual growth of cork and the subsequent increase in its thickness, which, in addition to porosity, determines the price of cork. Therefore, the simulation of cork thickness is a crucial module of forest growth simulators for cork oak stands. As the existing cork growth models are independent of climatic factors, cork thickness under different climate change scenarios could not be simulated using these models. The primary objective of this study was to develop a climate-dependent tree model to predict annual cork growth. We also verified the hypothesis that the effects of climate change on cork annual growth are nonlinear, and vary with the cork age and thickness. Due to the limited amount of work developed around this topic, we evaluated three candidate models and selected the one that presented best prediction performance as the base model. A set of climate variables that characterized annual climatic conditions were tested in the base model parameters. The resulting climate-dependent model was referred to as the fixed-effects model, and used to initialize a mixed-effect model which accounted for the nested structure of the data. We considered two random effects—the plot and the trees inside the plot. Annual precipitation and the Lang index (ratio between annual precipitation and mean annual temperature) were the variables that showed best results when included in the model parameters. Using a ratio of the variable to cork thickness recorded during the previous year, in both cases, suggested a decline of the positive effect of annual precipitation and the Lang index for increasing cork thickness. The models developed in this study predicted the cork thickness of individual trees based on the cork age and under different climate change scenarios. Therefore, they can be used in forest growth simulators for forest management and research purposes.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationPaulo, J.A., Firmino, P.N., Tomé, M. “A Tree- and Climate-Dependent Growth Model to Predict Mature Annual Cork Thickness under Different Climate Change Scenarios.” Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, vol. 9, no. 3, Sept. 2023, pp. 3329–42pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s40808-022-01652-8pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/31253
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringerpt_PT
dc.relationDL57/2016/CP1382/CT0027pt_PT
dc.relationForest Research Centre
dc.relationInfluence of edaphic, topographic and competition variables on cork quality and thickness and cork oak spatial distribution
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectQuercus suber L.pt_PT
dc.subjectmontadopt_PT
dc.subjectDehesapt_PT
dc.subjectcork ringpt_PT
dc.subjectagroforestry systempt_PT
dc.subjectdecision support systempt_PT
dc.titleA tree‑ and climate‑dependent growth model to predict mature annual cork thickness under different climate change scenariospt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleForest Research Centre
oaire.awardTitleInfluence of edaphic, topographic and competition variables on cork quality and thickness and cork oak spatial distribution
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00239%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBD%2F133598%2F2017/PT
oaire.citation.endPage3342pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage3329pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleModeling Earth Systems and Environmentpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume9pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamOE
person.familyNamePaulo
person.familyNameFirmino
person.familyNameBranco de Brito Tavares Tomé
person.givenNameJoana Amaral
person.givenNamePaulo
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.identifier2906062
person.identifierF-5776-2010
person.identifier.ciencia-id4A1A-B3B8-4CD1
person.identifier.ciencia-idA814-5B5A-D2C5
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1889-1721
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9536-5533
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6242-8593
person.identifier.scopus-author-id14626691000
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57189385031
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione6cc9b93-14b7-422e-90ed-5dee8f8194ad
relation.isAuthorOfPublication52db9846-1afa-4459-b2ee-cfe7b00a557e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery063037ac-740c-4282-850a-16f2d0c1e497
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