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Publicação
Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We calibrate an endogenous overlapping generations model of a small open economy to study the effects of population aging and population decline. In an invariant scenario public and foreign debt explode and GDP growth decreases markedly. Among the tested policies to control public finances, the best for the individuals is an increase in the retirement age, which needs to increase 6 years, a similar magnitude as the increase in life expectancy at birth. However, this increase has to happen before the increase in life expectancy materializes itself. Aging has a stronger negative impact on public debt than population decline. We find a positive, but quantitatively modest, behavioral effect in reaction to a higher life expectancy with an impact on the GDP growth rate of only 2 basis points.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
aging Open Economy Time Allocation PAYG pensions Debt
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Pereira, João (2019). "Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working papers nº 063 - 2019
Editora
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics