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Using yield-SAFE model to assess climate change impact on yield of coffee (Coffea arabica) under agroforestry and monoculture systems
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Autores
Resumo(s)
Ethiopia economy strongly depends on coffee (Coffea arabica L.) production. Coffee, like many other agricultural crops, is sensitive to climate change. Future changes in climate will have a negative impact on coffee yield and quality. Studies have called for an urgent development of coffee’s adaptation strategies against climate change and agroforestry systems have received attention as an adaptation and mitigation strategy for coffee production under future climate. This study contributes to the assessment of coffee production in 1) monoculture and in 2) agroforestry systems, under different climate scenarios, in four different regions, providing insights for preliminary recommendations for coffee growers and policy makers. The Yield-SAFE processbased model was used to predict yield of coffee in monoculture and under agroforestry systems for forty years of current and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 - HadCM2 model). In monoculture system, coffee yield was estimated to decrease between 4-38 % and 16-58 % in RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively from its current yield of 1000-1600 kg ha-1 yr-1. However, in agroforestry system the decrease was between 4-13 % and 13-25 % in RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively from its current yield of 1200-2200 kg ha-1 yr-1, showing that agroforestry systems have a higher resilience when facing future climate change.
Descrição
Mestrado Mediterranean Forestry and Natural Resources Management (MEDFOR) - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL
Palavras-chave
climate change adaptation Ethiopia process based model system resilience shade trees agroforestry Coffea arabica
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Bezabeh, T.G. - Using yield-SAFE model to assess climate change impact on yield of coffee (Coffea arabica) under agroforestry and monoculture systems. Lisboa: ISA, 2016, 36 p.