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IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

2022-07Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorPedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan
dc.contributor.authorvan Vuuren, Detlef
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Joyeeta
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Filipe
dc.contributor.authorEdmonds, Jae
dc.contributor.authorSwart, Rob
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-20T18:27:35Z
dc.date.available2022-06-20T18:27:35Z
dc.date.issued2022-07
dc.description.abstractLong-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationJiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen, Detlef van Vuuren, Joyeeta Gupta, Filipe Duarte Santos, Jae Edmonds, Rob Swart, IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?, Global Environmental Change, Volume 75, 2022, 102538, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/53417
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.titleIPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage102538pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Environmental Changept_PT
oaire.citation.volume75pt_PT
person.familyNamePedersen
person.familyNameSantos
person.givenNameJiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan
person.givenNameFilipe
person.identifier.ciencia-id1715-B972-B778
person.identifier.ciencia-idB918-FBD8-4108
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5217-6433
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7316-1479
person.identifier.ridM-7709-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57211059250
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7202141256
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione4206ffd-e3b3-40de-9acf-7b56c6e782cf
relation.isAuthorOfPublication010c1041-ab53-4a56-9d53-bab25bb653fb
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverye4206ffd-e3b3-40de-9acf-7b56c6e782cf

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