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Consumer confidence and stock markets 'returns
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Resumo(s)
This study provides new insights on the relationship between changes in consumer con dence
indices worldwide and the performance of European, United States and Chinese stock markets,
during the period from 2007 to 2021. We look both into global and industry returns. For the
full-time period, we nd stock market returns tend to be positively correlated with changes in
consumer con dence indices, with signi cant two-way Granger causal impacts between the two
variables for Europe and the United States. For the Chinese stock market we nd less pronounced
and only one-way impact { changes in consumer con dence indices can Granger explain Chinese
stock returns, but not vice versa. In fact, Chinese stock returns only help explaining changes in
East Asian consumer con dence index. These results are robust across industries. For the Covid
pandemic sub-period, we nd some negative correlations between stock market returns and changes
in consumer con dence indices. This is particularly evident in China, but it also happens in Europe
and United States, at least for some industries, including Health Care. Overall, the connection
between the stock market performance and changes in consumer con dence is lower for USA and
European stock markets, but it is higher for the Chinese stock market, in terms of the number of
signi cant outcomes.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Consumer Confidence Index Stock Returns Granger Causality
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Gaspar, Raquel M. and Xu Jiaming (2023). "Consumer confidence and stock markets 'returns". REM Working paper series, nº 0292/2023
Editora
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics