Logo do repositório
 
Publicação

Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula

2021-02Artigo científico Acesso aberto
Ver registo simples
dc.contributor.authorMenezes, Tomás
dc.contributor.authorPereira, M.G.
dc.contributor.authorNunes, João Pedro
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-25T08:03:22Z
dc.date.available2023-02-01T01:31:15Z
dc.date.issued2021-02
dc.description.abstractWeather conditions play an important role in wildfire activity. In many regions, future climate could lead to different fire weather, with impacts on the ignition, behaviour, and suppression of wildfires, which may, therefore, force new fire regimes. This study aimed to assess the evolution of fire weather indices and the Number of Extreme Days (NED) in the context of climate change. We estimated the impact of these changes on monthly Normalized Burnt Area (NBA) and in the spatial distribution of Pyro-Regions (PR), using a recently identified relationship between NED and NBA intra-annual patterns. The components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) in the Iberian Peninsula were analysed for present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using daily data from ERA-Interim (1980-2014) and an ensemble of simulations from 11 EURO-CORDEX high spatial resolution models, for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggest a significant increase in future fire weather risk, especially in late spring and early autumn, and also in southern and eastern Iberian Peninsula. NED is expected to strongly increase in summer months in the four PRs, but also to decrease in March and April in the northwestern and southwestern PR. This could change the spatial distribution of PRs, with a general northwards movement: the northern PR is expected to disappear except north of the Cantabrian Mountains, being replaced by the northwestern PR; the southwestern PR is expected to grow and occupy part of the area currently in the northwestern PR; and a new PR could appear in parts of the current eastern PR. These PR changes follow the projected modifications in the major climate regions. Results suggest different fire regimes in the future, with higher fire weather risk, and a longer and harsher fire season.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationCalheiros T., Nunes J.P., Pereira M.G. 2021. Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and fire regimes in Iberia. Science of the Total Environment 754: 142233 (DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233)pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44424
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationIF/00586/2015pt_PT
dc.relationA designar
dc.relationFRISCO: managing Fire-induced RISks of water quality Contamination
dc.relationCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes
dc.relationCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233pt_PT
dc.titleAssessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsulapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleA designar
oaire.awardTitleFRISCO: managing Fire-induced RISks of water quality Contamination
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes
oaire.awardTitleCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/PD%2FBD%2F128173%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PCIF%2FMPG%2F0044%2F2018/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00329%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04033%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.startPage142233pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleScience of The Total Environmentpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume754pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameLeonardo Teixeira de Calheiros e Menezes
person.familyNameCarvalho Nunes
person.givenNameTomás
person.givenNameJoão Pedro
person.identifierA-5497-2011
person.identifier.ciencia-id8911-FFF2-464F
person.identifier.ciencia-id2911-5CBD-5FA9
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8240-3502
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0164-249X
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102878032
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.embargofctO embargo de 24 meses é ditado pela editora Elsevier para a revista Science of the Total Environment.pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication6fe19244-bd60-497d-b63e-e95b23d112d2
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationff741d71-8daf-4dbe-aec4-f4b9697072c5
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryff741d71-8daf-4dbe-aec4-f4b9697072c5
relation.isProjectOfPublicationcf05c131-e70d-4a2d-bb0e-2e0c6b6ff2a8
relation.isProjectOfPublicationbcf2aee4-085e-4a2d-9778-a1d579452d3f
relation.isProjectOfPublicatione6d2c5ff-9af2-4726-9821-7bcf881e9e2d
relation.isProjectOfPublication7a6510b5-ce03-44ea-88c5-007d0ab7329c
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery7a6510b5-ce03-44ea-88c5-007d0ab7329c

Ficheiros

Principais
A mostrar 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura
Nome:
TCalheiros_etal_2020_STOTEN_versaoparaFCUL.pdf
Tamanho:
1.69 MB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Ver/Abrir

Coleções

cE3c - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais