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Exploring tourism system dynamics : agent-based modelling (ABM) as a tool for tourism research
Publication . Boavida-Portugal, Inês Sousa e Silva, 1985-; Ferreira, Carlos Manuel Baptista Cardoso, 1967-; Rocha, Jorge
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research due to potential to model complex phenomena that emerge from individual interactions. Complexity is a subject of growing interest in tourism and researchers start to study the tourism system as a complex phenomenon. Conceptualizing tourism as a system comprised by multiple interconnected and interdependent components and agents across all scales, which behave in a non-linear, self-organizing, on the edge of chaos way, is a challenging task. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This thesis seeks to understand if tourism can be analyzed through a complex systems approach using ABM as a tool to explore its dynamics. ABM provide a tool to address tourism system complexity by representing it from an individual-based approach, i.e. from the bottom-up, agent-by-agent, interaction-by-interaction, that incorporates space, time, processes and interactions. Hence, a tourism system empirical-based ABM – TourABM – applied to Alentejo Litoral case study was developed, using a hybrid framework that integrates several methods from Geographical Information Science (ABM, Cellular Automata and Geographical Information Systems), as well as qualitative methods (stakeholder workshop, experts workshop, and scenario development). The individual-based framework operationalized with TourABM, provides a tool to: a) further the understanding of the tourism system functioning driven from a bottom-up (individual) approach, addressing tourism as a complex system; b) provide a platform for in silico simulation of tourism what-if scenarios; and c) demonstrate the potential applicability and relevance of ABM to explore a range of tourism system dynamics. Three different what-if scenarios were developed and implemented in TourABM platform: (1) tourism demand increase; (2) climate change and seasonal visitation patterns; and (3) future tourism development related land use/cover changes. The model outputs tourism indicators at multiple scales, such as: (i) a daily, monthly, seasonal and yearly; (ii) individually and aggregated; and (iii) local (municipal) and macro (regional); that support the assessment and monitoring of the systems’ future visions, strategies and goals. The approach taken improves on the shortcomings of traditional tourism models by simulating the system from a bottom-up approach, as opposed to studying top-down patterns. From a broader theoretical perspective, TourABM provides a platform for the: i) integration of various concepts of a fragmented tourist decision-making theory, supporting the improvement of system understanding; ii) representation of the tourism system from an individual perspective; iii) production of multi-scale tourism indicators that can support decision-making; and iv) exploration of what-if scenarios. Several ABM additional applications in tourism research are identified as well as key challenges in its operationalization. Accordingly, three strategies to overcome these challenges are proposed, namely: (a) education; (b) awareness; and (c) interdisciplinary teams. The definition of strategies aims to establish ABM as a viable research tool to address the tourism system’s complexity.
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Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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SFRH
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SFRH/BD/75984/2011