THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CITIZENSHIP IN THE EUROZONE

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Democracy, populism, and economic globalization : an extension of the selectorat theory

Publication . Mendonça, Pedro Miguel Martins, 1984-; Silva, Filipe Carreira da, 1975-; Wiesehomeier, Nina

This dissertation presents a theory of regimes and trade liberalization in complementary stages. The three chapters share a unifying theme which is an approach to trade liberalization as a locus of distributive struggles that is interrelated with the distributive struggles of regime change. The first chapter is a conceptual piece on the relationship of democracy and globalization that includes a comprehensive review of the field. It proposes the coupling of a Stolper-Samuelson-inspired theory with the selectorate theory (Mesquita, 2003) as an avenue of theory-building that mitigates the weaknesses of previous theory and better reflects empirical evidence on democracy and trade. The second chapter develops a game-theoretic model of political regimes and trade liberalization — the extended selectorate theory (ESM) — and presents a computer program to study the model. Namely, it examines how the interaction of institutional variables, policy learning and inequality, influence policy output. The results contradict some features from previous explanations and build upon some others, indicating that: 1) inequality changes the effects of learning, and the latter are biased towards capital ; 2) learning from other countries trade policy experience changes individual preferences on trade policy and changes other redistributive policies ; 3) democratization does not equate to an increase in labor’s leverage in trade policy making; 4) capital’s preferences on redistribution influences which comes first: democracy or trade liberalization. The third and final chapter expands on the analytical utility of the model by offering an interpretation of populism and globalization based on its central predictions and underlying logic. A method for the classification of populist phenotypes, based on the ESM, is developed and illustrated with two European and two Latin American populism. It concludes with a short analysis on how different populist phenotypes may affect free trade and, concomitantly, economic globalization.

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Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Número da atribuição

SFRH/BD/86856/2012