A carregar...
Projeto de investigação
Strategic Project - UI 436 - 2011-2012
Financiador
Autores
Publicações
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union
Publication . Afonso, António; Carvalho, Rui
In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour.
Using the SNA and SAMs for a better (socio-)economic modelling
Publication . Santos, Susana
The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) can be considered a tool to be used for measuring a society’s activity. It provides a description of that activity, which can be either empirical or theoretical, depending on whether it is presented in a numerical or an algebraic version, respectively. Special attention will be paid here to the numerical version, and a method will be proposed for its construction from the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA). After the first and most fundamental contribution made by Richard Stone, the SNA (with its successive improved versions, from 1953 to 2008) has established a set of rules for measuring a society’s activity, which the statistical offices of countries or groups of countries have adopted and adapted to their specific realities, thus defining their own systems. Through an application of the SAM to Portugal, a basic structure, based on the SNA, will be proposed for this matrix, and its consistency within the whole system will be studied. Possible disaggregations, extensions, aggregates, indicators and balances will be calculated and other aspects beyond that basic structure will also be examined. It will be concluded that using the SNA in a SAM-based approach contributes towards a better modelling of (socio-)economic policy, emphasizing the importance of that approach as a valuable support in policy decision processes.
Contagion in EU sovereign yield spreads
Publication . Afonso, António; Felix, Ana Catarina Ramos
Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area, a main concern for European leaders is the prevention of the possible contagion from distressed countries.
In our research, we assess if there is a spillover effect from those countries and which determinants can be considered transmission mechanisms of the sovereign debt crisis.
We use a panel of 13 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United
Kingdom), covering the period Q1:2000 to Q1:2013 and we also analyse each country individually, on the basis of a SUR analysis. We find that those countries with worse macro and fiscal fundamentals are more vulnerable to contagion and are more affected by international liquidity and credit risks.
Socio-economic studies with social accounting and sociodemographic matrices : an (attempted) application to Mozambique
Publication . Santos, Susana
In looking for empirical evidence about the activity of countries, a proposal is made for studying (measuring and modelling) the activity of countries through the use of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and Socio-Demographic Matrices (SDMs). SAMs and SDMs are presented as tools that have specific features for conducting studies in several different areas, as well as for supporting policy decision processes. Based on methodological principles that are derived mainly from the works of Richard Stone, emphasis is placed on the desirability of working in a matrix format, which includes not only people (SDM), but also, at the same time, activities, products, factors of production and institutions (SAM). This is considered to be a way of capturing the relevant network of linkages and the corresponding multiplier effects for the subsequent modelling of the act ivity of the countries studied. A method will be proposed for the construction of these matrices. In the case of the SAMs, it is proposed that their design and construction should adopt, at least as their starting point, the latest version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) and the corresponding results of its adoption/adaptation by different countries. The exposition of this proposal is accompanied by an example applied to Mozambique, as well as by some considerations about the quality, suitability and completeness of the data used in the construction of SAMs and SDMs.
Unidades organizacionais
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Contribuidores
Financiadores
Entidade financiadora
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Programa de financiamento
6817 - DCRRNI ID
Número da atribuição
PEst-OE/EGE/UI0436/2011