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Projeto de investigação
UNRAVELING THE DRIVERS AND IMPACTS OF INVADERS IN A CHANGING WORLD<br>
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Publicações
Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non‐native species in local assemblages
Publication . Liu, Daijun; Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Moser, Dietmar; Semenchuk, Philipp; Blackburn, Tim M.; Cassey, Phillip; Biancolini, Dino; Capinha, César; Dawson, Wayne; Dyer, Ellie E.; Guénard, Benoit; Economo, Evan P.; Kreft, Holger; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; van Kleunen, Mark; Rondinini, Carlo; Seebens, Hanno; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Purvis, Andy; Dullinger, Stefan
The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.
Predicting the expansion of invasive species: how much data do we need?
Publication . Santana, Joana; Sillero, Neftalí; Ribeiro, Joana; Capinha, César; Lopes, Ricardo Jorge; Reino, Luís
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a powerful tool to predict the spread of invasive alien species (IAS) and support the implementation of actions aiming to reduce the impact of biological invasions. While calibrating ENMs with distribution data from species’ native ranges can underestimate the invasion potential due to possible niche shifts, using distribution data combining species’ native and invasive ranges may overestimate the invasion potential due to a reduced fitness and environmental tolerance of species in invaded ranges. An alternative may be using the increasingly available distribution data of IAS as they spread their invaded ranges, to iteratively forecast invasions as they unfold. However, while this approach accounts for possible niche shifts, it may also underestimate the species’ potential range, particularly at the early stages of the invasion when the most suitable conditions may not yet be represented in the distribution range data set. Here, we evaluate the capacity of ENMs to forecast the distribution of IAS based on distribution data on invaded ranges as these data become available. We further use dispersion models to assess the expansion process using the predicted potential distributions. Specifically, we used the common waxbill (Estrilda astrild) in the Iberian Peninsula as a model system. We built ENMs with 10×10 km grid cells distribution records cumulatively for each decade from 1960 to 2019, and yearly bioclimatic variables, to forecast the species potential range in the coming decades. Then, we assessed the performance of the models for each decade in forecasting the species’ observed range expansion in the following decades and evaluated how the number of distribution records determined the quality of the forecasts. Finally, we performed dispersal estimates (based on species traits, topography, climate and land cover) to analyse the prediction capacity of models as their uncertainty may be reduced when projecting them to the next decades. Our results show that invasion-only ENMs successfully forecasted the species’ range expansion over three decades after invasion, while dispersion models were not important in forecasting common waxbill expansion. Our study highlights the importance of constantly monitoring alien species, suggesting that iterative updating of ENMs with observed distribution data may accurately forecast the range expansion of alien species.
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Entidade financiadora
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Programa de financiamento
Concurso para Financiamento de Projetos de Investigação Científica e Desenvolvimento Tecnológico em Todos os Domínios Científicos - 2020
Número da atribuição
PTDC/BIA-ECO/0207/2020