Antarctic Peninsula permafrost under a changing climate: sensitivity, fate and impacts

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Employing automated electrical resistivity tomography for detecting short- and long-term changes in permafrost and active-layer dynamics in the maritime Antarctic

Publication . Farzamian, Mohammad; Herring, Teddi; Vieira, Gonçalo; de Pablo, Miguel Angel; Yaghoobi Tabar, Borhan; Hauck, Christian

Repeated electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys can substantially advance the understanding of spatial and temporal freeze–thaw dynamics in remote regions, such as Antarctica, where the evolution of permafrost has been poorly investigated. To enable time-lapse ERT surveys in Antarctica, an automated ERT (A-ERT) system is required, as regular site visits are not feasible. In this context, we developed a robust A-ERT prototype and installed it at the Crater Lake CALM-S site on Deception Island, Antarctica, to collect quasi-continuous ERT measurements. We developed an automated data processing workflow to efficiently filter and invert the A-ERT datasets and extract the key information required for a detailed investigation of permafrost and active-layer dynamics. In this paper, we report on the results of two complete year-round A-ERT datasets collected in 2010 and 2019 at the Crater Lake CALM-S site and compare them with available climate and borehole data. The A-ERT profile has a length of 9.5 m with an electrode spacing of 0.5 m, enabling a maximum investigation depth of approximately 2 m. Our detailed investigation of the A-ERT data and inverted results shows that the A-ERT system can detect the active-layer freezing and thawing events with high temporal resolution. The resistivity of the permafrost zone in 2019 is very similar to the values found in 2010, suggesting the stability of the permafrost over almost 1 decade at this site. The evolution of thaw depth exhibits a similar pattern in both years, with the active-layer thickness fluctuating between 0.20–0.35 m. However, a slight thinning of the active layer is evident in early 2019, compared to the equivalent period in 2010. These findings show that A-ERT datasets, combined with the new processing workflow that we developed, are an effective tool for studying permafrost and active-layer dynamics with very high resolution and minimal environmental disturbance. The ability of the A-ERT setup to monitor the spatiotemporal progression of thaw depth in two dimensions, and potentially in three dimensions, and to detect brief surficial refreezing and thawing of the active layer reveals the significance of the automatic ERT monitoring system to record continuous resistivity changes. An A-ERT monitoring setup with a longer profile length can investigate greater depths, offering effective monitoring at sites where boreholes are costly and invasive techniques are unsuitable. This shows that the A-ERT setup described in this paper can be a significant addition to the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) networks to further investigate the impact of fast-changing climate and extreme meteorological events on the upper soil horizons and to work towards establishing an early warning system for the consequences of climate change.

2024Artigo científico

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Microscale is key to model current and future Maritime Antarctic vegetation

Publication . Matos, Paula; Rocha, Bernardo; Pinho, Pedro; Miranda, Vasco; Pina, Pedro; Goyanes, Gabriel; Vieira, Gonçalo

Despite being one of the most pristine regions in the world, Antarctica is currently also one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Antarctic vegetation comprises mostly lichens and bryophytes, complemented in some milder regions of Maritime Antarctica by two vascular plant species. Shifts in the spatial patterns of these three main vegetation groups have already been observed in response to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for the development of comprehensive large-scale ecological models of the effects of climate change. Besides climate, Antarctic terrestrial vegetation is also strongly influenced by non-climatic microscale conditions related to abiotic and biotic factors. Nevertheless, the quantification of their importance in determining vegetation patterns remains unclear. The objective of this work was to quantify the importance of abiotic and biotic microscale conditions in determining the spatial cover patterns of the major functional types, lichens, vascular plants and bryophytes, explicitly determining the likely confinement of each functional type to the microscale conditions, i.e., their ecological niche. Microscale explained >60 % of the spatial variation of lichens and bryophytes and 30 % of vascular plants, with the niche analysis suggesting that each of the three functional types may be likely confined to specific microscale conditions in the studied gradient. Models indicate that the main microscale ecological filters are abiotic but show the potential benefits of including biotic variables and point to the need for further clarification of vegetation biotic interactions' role in these ecosystems. Altogether, these results point to the need for the inclusion of microscale drivers in ecological models to track and forecast climate change effects, as they are crucial to explain present vegetation patterns in response to climate, and for the interpretation of ecological model results under a climate change perspective.

2024Artigo científico

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Entidade financiadora

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Programa de financiamento

Concurso de Projetos de I&D em Todos os Domínios Científicos - 2022

Número da atribuição

2022.06628.PTDC