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Uncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modeling under Climate Change Scenarios
Publication . Passos, Isabel; Figueiredo, Albano; Almeida, Alice Maria; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to forecast the impact of climate
change on species’ potential distribution, with results that might support decisions for conservation
and biodiversity management. Despite their vulnerability to parameterization and data quality
input, SDM use has been increasing in the last decades. In fact, inappropriate inputs and the lack of
awareness about the effects of methodological decisions on results can lead to potential unreliability
in results, a problem that might gain relevance when SDMs are used to predict climate change impacts
on species-suitable areas. Aiming to assess how far such a topic is considered, an analysis of the
calibration data and methodological decisions was conducted for recent publications (2018 to 2022)
that include SDMs in this context, aiming to identify putative deviations from the consensual best
practices. Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the algorithm in use
(MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the accuracy measures, and the time windows. But many
papers fail to specify other parameters, limiting the reproducibility of the studies. Some papers fail
to provide information about calibration procedures, others consider only a fraction of the species’
range, and others provide no justification for including specific variables in the model. These options
can decrease reliability in predictions under future scenarios, since data provided to the model are
inaccurate from the start or there is insufficient information for output discussion
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Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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UI/BD/152853/2022