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- Incorporating biotic interactions to better model current and future vegetation of the maritime AntarcticPublication . Rocha, Bernardo; Pinho, Pedro; Giordani, Paolo; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Vieira, Gonçalo; Pina, Pedro; Branquinho, Cristina; Matos, PaulaMaritime Antarctica’s harsh abiotic conditions forged simple terrestrial ecosystems, mostly constituted of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants. Though biotic interactions are, together with abiotic factors, thought to help shape this ecosystem, influencing species’ distribution and, indirectly, mediating their response to climate, the importance of these interactions is still fairly unknown. We modeled current and future abundance patterns of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants, accounting for biotic interactions and abiotic drivers, along a climatic gradient in maritime Antarctica. The influence of regional climate and other drivers was modeled using structural equation models, with and without biotic interactions. Models with biotic interactions performed better; the one offering higher ecological support was used to estimate current and future spatial distributions of vegetation. Results suggest that plants are confined to lower elevations, negatively impacting bryophytes and lichens, whereas at higher elevations both climate and other drivers influence bryophytes and lichens. Our findings strongly support the use of biotic interactions to predict the spatial distribution of Antarctic vegetation.
- Microscale is key to model current and future Maritime Antarctic vegetationPublication . Matos, Paula; Rocha, Bernardo; Pinho, Pedro; Miranda, Vasco; Pina, Pedro; Goyanes, Gabriel; Vieira, GonçaloDespite being one of the most pristine regions in the world, Antarctica is currently also one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Antarctic vegetation comprises mostly lichens and bryophytes, complemented in some milder regions of Maritime Antarctica by two vascular plant species. Shifts in the spatial patterns of these three main vegetation groups have already been observed in response to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for the development of comprehensive large-scale ecological models of the effects of climate change. Besides climate, Antarctic terrestrial vegetation is also strongly influenced by non-climatic microscale conditions related to abiotic and biotic factors. Nevertheless, the quantification of their importance in determining vegetation patterns remains unclear. The objective of this work was to quantify the importance of abiotic and biotic microscale conditions in determining the spatial cover patterns of the major functional types, lichens, vascular plants and bryophytes, explicitly determining the likely confinement of each functional type to the microscale conditions, i.e., their ecological niche. Microscale explained >60 % of the spatial variation of lichens and bryophytes and 30 % of vascular plants, with the niche analysis suggesting that each of the three functional types may be likely confined to specific microscale conditions in the studied gradient. Models indicate that the main microscale ecological filters are abiotic but show the potential benefits of including biotic variables and point to the need for further clarification of vegetation biotic interactions' role in these ecosystems. Altogether, these results point to the need for the inclusion of microscale drivers in ecological models to track and forecast climate change effects, as they are crucial to explain present vegetation patterns in response to climate, and for the interpretation of ecological model results under a climate change perspective.