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- Polycentricity: not a Panacea, but a Piece of the PuzzlePublication . Wit, Fronika
- A changing Amazon rainforest: Historical trends and future projections under post-Paris climate scenariosPublication . Carvalho, Sílvia; Oliveira, André; Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan; Manhice, Halaze; Lisboa, Filipe; Norguet, Jérémy; Wit, Fronika; Santos, Filipe DuarteDespite the progress in sustainable development strategies, the role of the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink faces increasing disturbances that may have a critical impact on global climate. Understanding the vulnerability of the Amazon rainforest to climate change is a major challenge, considering the complex interaction between human and natural systems. This paper aims, via an interdisciplinary approach, to assess the observed evolution and possible future of the Amazon rainforest, considering different global climate and socio-economic scenarios. By comparing historical with plausible future developments, we present key knowledge to inform mitigation and regional adaptation policy considerations. As an entry point, historical trends of annual mean temperature and precipitation were analysed. In a second step, the same assessment was made for the mean annual NDVI sum (a proxy of yearly plant productivity), representing vegetation strength. For these purposes, a 34-year period (1982–2015) was considered. Trends were analysed based on non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods. With this representation of the past, the next step focused on future scenarios. The most plausible global emission pathways were evaluated via the comparison of ten assessments of the possible effects of the mitigation action plans of national governments, as stated in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs). Results indicate a strong consensus that if either current policies, unconditional or conditional NDCs are fulfilled, the limit of global warming by “well below 2 °C" will be exceeded. In this context, climate projections for the Amazon suggest, among other results, an increase in the range of 1.3 °C (lower limit under SSP1-2.6) to 6.5 °C (upper limit under SSP5-8.5). Unlike temperature, positive and negative anomalies are expected for precipitation depending on location. Despite the uncertainty regarding the projections, possible changes such as forest diebacks and savannization may take place, namely in southeastern Amazon, by the end of the century. Overall, this study highlights the importance of carefully considering the combination of different factors, such as deforestation, to guarantee rainforest resilience under climate-driven changes.
- Global climate adaptation governance in the Amazon through a polycentricity lensPublication . Wit, Fronika; Martins De Freitas, PaulaThe 2015 Paris agreement has made adaptation to climate change a global goal and increased the polycentricity of the governance landscape. This study uses insights from polycentric governance theory to analyze the emergence of adaptation governance (AG) in Brazil and its implications for the state of Acre, situated in the Amazon region. By using a qualitative data analysis, including subnational climate policies and semi-structured interviews, we aim to analyze the advantages and challenges of polycentric AG in Acre and provide recommendations for improved AG in the region.
- Urban Climate Governance in the AmazonPublication . Wit, FronikaThe Earth System is facing boundaries to high anthropogenic pressures and, to create a safe operating space on Earth, the Planetary Boundary (PB) Framework has estimated nine global boundaries1 (Rockstrom et al. 2009). Although this framework, provides us with a “planetary playing field”, Raworth (2012) points to its missing “social dimension”: It describes a safe, but not necessarily a just operating space. With the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, Steffen et al. (2015) updated the PB Framework and placed it into the social context of the SDGs but did not provide pathways for just development inside the boundaries. Related to the planetary boundaries are tipping elements: subsystems of the Earth system that can be switched into a different state by small perturbations (Lenton et al. 2008). The Amazon is a tipping element: a combination of global warming and local land use change threaten its future and might turn the tropical forest into dry savannah (Nobre et al. 2016). Because of their potentially large impacts on the ecosystem and human well-being, planetary boundaries and their tipping points are of concern for policymaking and require a restructuring of governance arrangements to increase the resilience of socio-ecological systems (Folke et al. 2010).
- Interweaving Knowledge Systems Through Sustainability GovernancePublication . Mourato, João; Bussler, Alexandra; Wit, Fronika
- The Geography of Urban Sustainability Transitions: A Critical ReviewPublication . Mourato, João; Wit, FronikaResearch on Urban Sustainability Transitions (UST) highlights the need for drastic changes across a broad range of sectors and calls for integrated policy solutions and innovative governance approaches. However, UST research fails to take onboard the spatial features of transitions and how distinctive local conditions shape change. This chapter aims to critically examine the territoriality of UST by analysing institutional contingencies and particularities of local sustainability and climate action governance. In detail, and in light of the literature of pioneering European UST examples, we comparatively examine the Portuguese UST landscape with particular focus on: (1) the impact of local institutional and governance cultures; (2) the role of political agency, power and knowledge systems in stimulating or blocking transitions; and finally (3) the rise of territorial and institutional inter-, and intra-national disparities in terms of transition capacity. In short, this chapter aims to empirically and conceptually contribute to the current spatial turn in the wider sustainability transitions debate by adding a critical review of a Europe-wide growingly uneven landscape of local transitions’ governance capacity and its implications.
- Governança climática e a floresta amazônica: analisando o desenvolvimento sustentável na Amazônia brasileira sob o olhar da geógrafa Bertha BeckerPublication . Wit, FronikaO futuro da floresta amazônica é um assunto de preocupação global: o bioma sustenta cerca de 40% das florestas tropicais remanescentes do mundo, tornando-se um importante provedor de serviços ambientais (Fearnside, 2008). Desenvolvido pelo Stockholm Resilience Center, o Quadro de Fronteiras Planetárias (QFP) estima nove fronteiras globais para conseguirmos manter um espaço operacional seguro no planeta Terra (Rockstrom et al., 2009). Com os 17 Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS), os pesquisadores atualizaram o QFP, colocando-o no contexto social dos ODS. No entanto, não forneceram caminhos para o desenvolvimento sustentável dentro dos limites do planeta (Steffen et al., 2015).