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- Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in PortugalPublication . Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan; Dias, Luís Filipe; Kok, Kasper; van Vuuren, Detlef; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, Filipe; Azevedo, João C.The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal’s rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal’s 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU’s Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.
- Integrating a hydrological model into regional water policies: co-creation of climate change dynamic adaptive policy pathways for water resources in southern PortugalPublication . Dias, Luís Filipe; Aparício, Bruno A.; Nunes, João Pedro; Morais, Inês; Fonseca, Ana Lúcia; Pastor, Amandine V; Santos, FilipeIrrigation is essential for a large part of Mediterranean agricultural systems, but scarce resources may cause conflicts between agricultural and domestic uses. These conflicts might be exacerbated by climate change, which could bring a drier climate and thus increase irrigation water demands while lowering supplies. These issues were addressed when designing a climate change adaptation plan for water resources in the Algarve region (southern Portugal), which was co-created between hydrologists and local stakeholders and policy-makers, by using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach to synthetize and communicate the results from hydrological modelling of future scenarios. The evolution of water availability and irrigation demands for key water assets in Algarve (southern Portugal) were simulated until 2100 for climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, using a modified version of Thornthwaite-Mather. The results show an increase in water stress, mainly in the RCP8.5 scenario. The results and need for adaptation were discussed with local and regional decision-makers and other stakeholders, and a set of adaptation measures was agreed upon. The discussed adaptation measures were then modelled and integrated the design of tailor-made DAPP. Finally, decision-makers and stakeholders were presented with DAPP and selected the most suitable and political reliable adaptation pathway that tackles projected climate change impacts in water resources until the end of the 21 st century. Stakeholders showed a strong preference for incremental and distributed small-scale measures, including the promotion of water use efficiency and landscape water retention, to large-scale measures such as wastewater recycling or new dams. A decrease in irrigation water use for agriculture was not considered socially desirable. Desalination was considered too costly for irrigation in the short term but kept in reserve in case other measures fail to keep water supplies at an acceptable level.