Browsing by Author "Andraz, Jorge M."
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- Gross domestic product growth, volatility and regime changes nexus : the case of PortugalPublication . Andraz, Jorge M.; Norte, Nélia M.This paper provides evidence of the behavior of GDP growth volatil- ity in Portugal over the period from 1961 to 2016 with the main objective of measuring the degree of asymmetry of GDP growth rates volatility across the business cycles and its persistence over time. The methodological setting benefits from the most recent developments that recommend the consideration of structural changes in both the mean and variance and asymmetric reactions of volatility to positive and negative shocks. The results document structural changes and significant reductions of GDP growth rates volatility consistent with the “Great Moderation” phenomenon and reveal that the impact of nega- tive shocks on volatility exceeds that of positive shocks more than 4 times over the sample period. Moreover, these asymmetries follow a rather stable pattern over the sample period, suggesting that the Portuguese economy has not been able to reduce its growth vulnerability to cyclical fluctuations.
- On the effects of highway investment on the regional concentration of economic activity in the USAPublication . Pereira, Alfredo M.; Andraz, Jorge M.The empirical results in this note are based on state-level VAR esti- mates using private output, employment, and investment, as well as diff erent measures of highway investment to capture, for each state, both the direct effects of highway investment in the state itself and spillover effects of highway investment in other states. Empirical results suggest that the largest states tend to also be the biggest beneficiaries of highway investments which means that highway investment has not only contributed to regional concentration of economic activity but has done so in many of the largest states thereby contributing to regional asymmetries in the country.
- Social security and economic performance in Portugal : after all that has been said and done how much has actually changed?Publication . Pereira, Alfredo M.; Andraz, Jorge M.This paper provides an empirical estimate of the macroeconomic effects of the Portuguese pay-as-you-go social security system based on data for the period 1970–2007 and on VAR estimates using GDP, the unit cost of labor, the unemployment rate, the savings rate and social security spending. The major findings are twofold. First, growing social security spending has had detrimental effects on all of the private sector variables under consideration suggesting the existence of sizable inefficiencies. Second, these inefficiencies persist despite the successive reforms that took place over the last two decades. These results highlight the need for structural reforms of the pay-as-you-go system thereby addressing the sources of these inefficiencies, regardless of whether or not the system is financially sustainable. Furthermore, any reforms designed to address sustainability concerns cannot ignore these inefficiencies or risk making them even worse and thereby hindering the quest for sustain- ability itself.